Uganda’s budget for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, set to begin in July, appears carefully crafted to appeal to a wide range of interest groups including the youth, elderly, musicians, and security personnel. This strategic positioning comes ahead of an intensifying election campaign season. Finance Minister Matia Kasaija delivered his ninth budget under the recurring theme of “Full Monetisation of the Ugandan Economy through Commercial Agriculture, Industrialisation, Expanding and Broadening Services, Digital Transformation and Market Access,” a slogan that has remained unchanged for the past three fiscal cycles, signaling a focus on consistency.
Finance Ministry spokesperson Jim Mugunga defended the approach, dismissing suggestions of a populist budget tailored for elections. Instead, he described it as aligned with long-term policy frameworks such as the National Development Plan and the ruling party’s manifesto. Minister Kasaija highlighted several achievements, such as increased access to health facilities and education, reduced poverty levels, and a decline in the subsistence economy. According to him, these gains signify growing economic resilience and a more equitable society, backed by a recent national survey indicating falling income inequality.
Despite the optimistic tone, the budget has swelled to Shs72 trillion even as the country grapples with chronic issues like fiscal indiscipline, corruption, and poor execution of public projects. These problems continue to undermine essential services, from deteriorating infrastructure in the capital to overstretched health and education systems. A 2021 Finance Ministry report pointed to ongoing problems in public service delivery due to fragmented planning, misaligned spending, and frequent project delays.
The new budget boosts funding for social services to Shs11.44 trillion, with notable increases in health and education. The health sector alone received Shs5.87 trillion, intended to upgrade facilities and strengthen community health services. Education funding rose to Shs5.04 trillion, aimed at sustaining free primary and secondary education. Yet, ground realities remain grim. Public hospitals regularly suffer drug shortages and staff deficits, while private pharmacies flourish near government facilities. Despite such systemic failings, the Finance Minister dedicated the budget to women, promising improved healthcare, education access, and support for small businesses.
Nonetheless, data from the World Health Organisation paints a stark picture. Many rural women still give birth without skilled help, and neonatal mortality remains above global targets. Teenage pregnancies significantly contribute to maternal deaths, and over 14 million Ugandans still lack access to clean water. The education sector fares no better, with numerous schools facing severe teacher shortages, crumbling infrastructure, and overcrowded classrooms. Inaccurate enrolment data further distorts resource allocation and planning.
Mr Mugunga acknowledged these gaps, attributing them to rising population numbers and insisting that persistent investment, rather than quick fixes, is necessary. As part of the government’s poverty alleviation strategy, Shs3.3 trillion has been distributed through the Parish Development Model (PDM), with another Shs1 trillion allocated in the new budget. However, the program’s effectiveness has been questioned, particularly due to inactive oversight secretariats and minimal progress by some beneficiaries.
Similarly, other revolving funds like the Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP) and Uganda Women Entrepreneurship Programme (UWEP) have seen limited success. Auditor General reports indicate extremely low recovery rates, with most funded groups disbanded and enterprises failing. Despite this, Shs404.9 billion has been allocated for these initiatives, including Social Assistance Grants for the Elderly (SAGE), which currently supports over 307,000 seniors with monthly stipends.
The security sector also received a substantial allocation of Shs9.9 trillion, with Kasaija acknowledging the critical role of uniformed personnel. This focus on welfare follows past political setbacks in military barracks and is viewed as a response to opposition promises—such as NUP leader Robert Kyagulanyi’s pledge to raise security forces’ salaries—which have gained traction in recent years.
Another Shs60 billion has been earmarked for the creative industry to establish a revolving fund, acquire infrastructure, and support copyright law reforms. This move comes amid a political divide in the music and arts community, with many artists aligning themselves with either the ruling NRM or the opposition. While critics argue this funding is politically motivated, industry leaders like Charles Batambuze claim it reflects long-standing goals to strengthen Uganda’s creative economy, which had been neglected in past budgets.
In response to growing political momentum in key regions, the government has also allocated Shs80 billion to settle war claims in areas like Teso. This followed opposition efforts to secure electoral support from war victims and a quick follow-up visit by Vice President Jessica Alupo, reaffirming the state’s financial commitment.
While the budget reflects broad ambitions to stimulate economic activity and placate influential demographics, the contrast between increased allocations and dismal service delivery casts doubt on its transformative potential. Without addressing underlying inefficiencies and accountability issues, Uganda’s fiscal plans risk remaining symbolic rather than substantive.