Uganda’s coffee sector is facing renewed pressure as export prices tumble, threatening the profit margins of exporters just months after reaching historic highs. From 2012 to 2021, the average export price for a kilogram of coffee remained stagnant at $1.84 (Shs6,628), following a decline from $2.48 (Shs8,899) recorded in 2011.
However, in late 2021 and throughout 2022, prices began to recover. By January 2022, export prices had climbed to $2.57 (Shs9,222) per kilogram—the highest in over a decade. This signaled a potential return to form for one of Uganda’s most valuable export commodities.
Data from Bank of Uganda shows that in 2022, coffee exports averaged $2.55 (Shs9,151) per kilogram. This trend continued into 2023 with prices rising to an average of $2.63 (Shs9,438). By 2024, prices surged 65.75 percent to an average of $4 (Shs14,354), with December hitting a historic high of $4.64 (Shs16,651). The upward momentum extended into early 2025, peaking at $5.15 (Shs18,481) per kilogram in March and April.
This price boom coincided with growth in export volumes. Uganda exported 6.36 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in 2024, up from 2.69 million in 2012—a 42.2 percent increase. Foreign exchange earnings also skyrocketed, jumping over 400 percent from $372.5 million in 2012 to $1.54 billion.
Yet, this progress has recently reversed. In the past two months, both farm-gate and export prices have sharply declined, with rates falling to levels last seen in October 2021. Currently, a kilogram of exported coffee fetches just $2.7 (Shs9,689), a significant drop from earlier peaks.
The Ministry of Agriculture attributes this downturn to global oversupply and weak demand, which have depressed international prices. The impact on Uganda’s exports has been severe. According to David Muwonge, chief commercial officer at the National Union of Coffee Agribusiness and Farm Enterprises (Nucafe), the situation is nothing short of a crisis.
Nucafe, representing more than 250,000 farmers through 237 cooperatives, has experienced a 20 percent drop in export output over the past month due to falling prices. Muwonge explains that many farmers are hesitant to supply coffee at the current rates, despite inquiries from members seeking clarity on market conditions.
The union exports primarily to Europe—including Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain—as well as to Asian markets such as China and South Korea. But the volatile price environment has made it difficult to maintain consistency in payment structures for their members.
Much of the current pricing pressure stems from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, which is now delivering a bumper harvest. Analysts anticipate that Brazil’s output will continue to weigh on global markets, keeping prices suppressed for the foreseeable future.
Despite being Africa’s top coffee exporter—with Uganda’s 2024 exports generating $1.54 billion—Ethiopia remains the continent’s largest producer. Within May alone, 39.23 percent of Uganda’s coffee was exported to Italy, followed by Germany (9.38 percent), Sudan (7.15 percent), and Algeria (6.29 percent). Overall, 82.65 percent of Uganda’s coffee went to just 10 countries.
Intra-African exports rose to 144,042 bags in May, up from 76,467 in April. This represents an 18 percent market share, with key destinations including Sudan, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Tunisia, and Kenya.
The top exporters for the month included Ugacof with a 13 percent share, followed by Touton (7.12 percent), Export Trading Company (6.96 percent), Olam (6.69 percent), and Jber Coffee (5.98 percent). Others such as Ideal Quality Commodities, Kyagalanyi Coffee, JKCC General Supplies, Louis Dreyfus, and Besmark Coffee Company also featured prominently.
Looking ahead, Nucafe is exploring options to cushion its members. Muwonge says the organization may prioritize securing contracts with fixed, predictable pricing to shield farmers from further volatility. He also suggests a stronger focus on certified and fair-trade coffee to tap into premium markets that value ethical sourcing and quality.
Similarly, Gerald Katabazi, CEO of Volcano Coffee, advocates for investment in specialty coffees, which can offer more stability amid global market turbulence. These niche products, often less sensitive to broader market swings, could offer exporters a measure of protection as the commodity market enters a new period of uncertainty.